OK kev, but I still don't believe money is the only issue. For example,
if we had such damn good efficacy with HPV, we could swing that. We
agree, they backed off. I think I am on record as suspecting that 118 is
snake oil. They need very little money to finish Israel. I figure they
should has about 9 million in spoonfeeding to go. That ought to buy an
IND and a small trial here IMO with money left for new tires for
the HPV IND application cost nearly $6,000,000. Not sure how much (if
any) of that data will be useful towards the Cachexia IND. I believe
that a Phase II topical HPV trial would easily consume all of the 12
milion dollars & more.....Just as I don't think 12 million will get
us all that far along with a Phase II injectable Cachexia trial.
The next 3 million is schedule for delivery May 5th, 2004.
PS- (I never did fully believe the efficacy info contained in the first HPV related patent.)
- - - - -
HPV INDA may have cost 6 million, I'll take your word- but SHOULD it
have cost this much? Don't get me wrong Kev, I will be as amazed as any
if this product ever becomes a drug.
This quietness has me thinking that ADVR is trying to get the HPV
indication off and running in order to keep the financial status of this
company well enough to avoid another firm to get too close. There are
plenty of physicians throughout the country that would love to have
better treatment for their patients with HPV as we all know this
condition is associated with the dreaded illness better known as cancer.
Once this better alternative hits the market the MD's will be under
great pressure to use the best available treatment in order to avoid
litigation later on, even if they are not well versed on AVR118. ( Of
course this is dependent upon the use of the literature that most MD's
read and use to treat their patients). The literature will support the
drug and I think the revenue from this treatment will move us along till
the much more lucrative indications of this formula can be released over
the next few years. I caution any longs to sell as soon as the first
release of our product is ready for the worldwide patients in need, as I
think there will be many indications for this formula with the
blockbuster treatments comming near the end of the multiple uses of
Reticulose. Thanks, Mike
Now ADVR needs to get 118 into the next phase"
Do you think ADVR will move forward with the HPV Phase II they have already received approval for moving forward - especially now that Dicke has given them the cash to begin testing.
Or do you feel - if they should continue to refuse to test here in the USA - that the MILLIONS of dollars they spent in the quest to receive the IND and Phase I approval was mis-spent?
How much has management changed such that we can feel comfortable with their choices up the road now??
Have you called the company to ask questions regarding the MILLIONS of dollars (which by the way was supposed to have been our ticket to the "promised land" of FDA approval and sales in THIS country) we wasted in the 1995 - 2002 run-up to the Phase II go ahead - and subsequent cancellation of same??
Are you happy that after close to 9 years of Reticulose/Product R/AVR118 science we have but one less-than-thirty testing sequence going (in a foreign country) in which even preliminary results have yet to be published?
Just interested, as curious minds would like to hear your take on how fast this company is going to get ANY product to market and your precious PPS will go above 20 cents!!
We're now into our 3rd CEo in the past 2 years, how many more do we need to be successful?
thing at a time
No Im not happy about the 9 years
I stayed in a biotech just about 9 yrs
left over what I thought was a bad mgt decision
Cannot undue the last 9 yrs
Cannot undue the 500K salary the last guy had which when I look back on it now was criminal-when I look back.
Right now ADVR needs to bear down on getting 118 into trials
after these results come out
They realized they needed a New CEO--They did something about it--I feel she needs the next two quarters and should have it to get all back on track
I really cannot answer your question about wasted dollars
I am looking for this CEO to come in and get everything going right-I dont believe for one minute she would have taken this job if she herself was not convinced of the value of 118--
More later-I got to eat
I think because the porno guy put HFTB in a post that
people have become convinced im him thats a chiller
at least Sue came out and explained it.
look--ADVR has had a checkered past
but a lot has changed and this CEO might get it all done
so far imo she was late with a letter to us-but it was a good letter.
I truly hope you get your ADVR dream.
I am pretty much spent out on giving them any more space to accomplish something they haven't been able to get done in 9 years yet, don't think a new CEO will make a difference at this point.
Only one, ONE, factor will pull them forward a deep pocketed partner. Everything else pales in comparison.
The only trouble I have with that vision is that this science has been displayed for that period of time and to date not ONE company has stepped forward to even give any indication of shaking ANY hands with ADVR. AVR118 has NOT been in hiding for all these years.
(Voluntary Disclosure: ST Rating- Strong Sell; LT Rating- Strong Sell)
Don't you think that the physicians treating HPV now with drugs that are
available might jump to our product if the literature points out a
minute improvement in the present choices, and if you do agree then this
will generate the much needed short term cash flow that we need to get
the more lucrative indications through testing and then hopefully to
market. The HPV indication will not overhaul present treatment, but it
might be helpful to our future. Years ago the pharmaceutical reps. went
out to jam their products down the MD's throat, but now the literature
is what most MD's use to change or add therapy, along with word of mouth
among each other. I don't want to see this company rely on a partner or
even a financial institution that requires a piece of us. Your posts
have taught me plenty about this new way of making a living instead of
working 60-70 hours a week, so keep on helping me think and re-think my
position. Thanks, Mike
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)
is what I have done
I recently doubled what I had
This was driven by
1- invitation to Italy
3- Micro Cap conf
4- $$$$ 12mm
5- ASCO invite
6- My Belief that P1 will show safety
7- low price
8- ADVR seems to be finding other possible avenues for 118
now--ususally in a biotech like this I would have 3- 4 x
im holding back here to see what P1 results really are
if they are real good then I will add
if not well I have some decisions
IF the results are really good then [you wont like this]
I will hope that the Street YAWNS --why ? so i can add lots
more at a reasonable price THEN I will put advr away
and forget it for a year - 18 months when results come out
Im actually actively looking now for 3- 4 more bios to buy.
This one I hope will stay with me
there is no Ph I testing going on with the systemic administration of
AVR118, let alone an IND for that same mode of administration. The ONLY
PH I testing approved by the FDA was already done on topical AVR118 and
the FDA gave it the go ahead for PH II testing.
ADVR then chose to cancel those USA tests.
The ONLY testing going on is the trials in Israel, and we don't have a clue as to whether that test will be able to be used in ANY FDA approval process.
Allen the more you talk, it seems the less you know about the company and its product line along with the history.
Go back to the library and bone up on your ADVR history.
By the way, "My Belief that P1 will show safety" is a no brainer comment. It is accepted common knowledge that AVR118 is non-toxic. So when they come back with non-toxicity reports...well that's a ho-hum!!
own a biotech and wake up one am and see on CNBC where they are down 60%
becasue the company decided to cancel a P3"
Sure, ADVR, not in one day...but I watched it decline from 50 cents to 7 cents after they had gotten approval for an IND, gotten God-knows-how-many-patents touted in PRs, approval for PH II testing and then canceled it.
I'd say a decline from 50 to 7 is more like over an 80% decline for THIS company!! With all that "good news" you'd expect the price to be going up, rather than down. Care to explain to us here WHY you think ADVR's price is down from 50 cents??
Any other questions?? Once again, BONE up on your ADVR history before you go tooting your knowledge horn here.
(Voluntary Disclosure: ST Rating- Strong Sell; LT Rating- Strong Sell)