Advanced Viral Research (BB: ADVR)
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By: kevtod
06 Apr 2004, 05:53 PM EDT
Msg. 146357 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146351 by mind31.)
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mind- Surely you realize that 3 million dollars every 3 months is chicken feed, compared to what it really takes to run a clinical trial.

The 12 million that will come from the Dickes' spoon-feeding finance deal will almost certainly be dedicated towards the finalizing of the Israel trials. And then just scratch the surface of the financial requirements that it will take for the cachexia IND and subsequent trials.

So, I disagree that they DO have the money. But, i DO agree that a decision was made to drop the HPV trials at any rate, and am on record as having reached this conclusion prior to the company's announcement of the derailment.

IAG....-kev
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By: mind31
06 Apr 2004, 06:06 PM EDT
Msg. 146360 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146357 by kevtod.)
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Well OK kev, but I still don't believe money is the only issue. For example, if we had such damn good efficacy with HPV, we could swing that. We agree, they backed off. I think I am on record as suspecting that 118 is snake oil. They need very little money to finish Israel. I figure they should has about 9 million in spoonfeeding to go. That ought to buy an IND and a small trial here IMO with money left for new tires for everybody.
By: kevtod
06 Apr 2004, 06:15 PM EDT
Msg. 146364 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146360 by mind31.)
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Well, the HPV IND application cost nearly $6,000,000. Not sure how much (if any) of that data will be useful towards the Cachexia IND. I believe that a Phase II topical HPV trial would easily consume all of the 12 milion dollars & more.....Just as I don't think 12 million will get us all that far along with a Phase II injectable Cachexia trial.

The next 3 million is schedule for delivery May 5th, 2004.

Disclaimer: WTFDIK

IAG.....-kev

PS- (I never did fully believe the efficacy info contained in the first HPV related patent.)

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By: mind31
06 Apr 2004, 06:44 PM EDT
Msg. 146366 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146364 by kevtod.)
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The HPV INDA may have cost 6 million, I'll take your word- but SHOULD it have cost this much? Don't get me wrong Kev, I will be as amazed as any if this product ever becomes a drug.

By: shemp1248
06 Apr 2004, 06:44 PM EDT
Msg. 146367 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146364 by kevtod.)
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Kev. This quietness has me thinking that ADVR is trying to get the HPV indication off and running in order to keep the financial status of this company well enough to avoid another firm to get too close. There are plenty of physicians throughout the country that would love to have better treatment for their patients with HPV as we all know this condition is associated with the dreaded illness better known as cancer. Once this better alternative hits the market the MD's will be under great pressure to use the best available treatment in order to avoid litigation later on, even if they are not well versed on AVR118. ( Of course this is dependent upon the use of the literature that most MD's read and use to treat their patients). The literature will support the drug and I think the revenue from this treatment will move us along till the much more lucrative indications of this formula can be released over the next few years. I caution any longs to sell as soon as the first release of our product is ready for the worldwide patients in need, as I think there will be many indications for this formula with the blockbuster treatments comming near the end of the multiple uses of Reticulose. Thanks, Mike
By: Ourobouros
06 Apr 2004, 08:58 PM EDT
Msg. 146441 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146428 by allenadvrlong.)
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"Right Now ADVR needs to get 118 into the next phase"

Do you think ADVR will move forward with the HPV Phase II they have already received approval for moving forward - especially now that Dicke has given them the cash to begin testing.

Or do you feel - if they should continue to refuse to test here in the USA - that the MILLIONS of dollars they spent in the quest to receive the IND and Phase I approval was mis-spent?

How much has management changed such that we can feel comfortable with their choices up the road now??

Have you called the company to ask questions regarding the MILLIONS of dollars (which by the way was supposed to have been our ticket to the "promised land" of FDA approval and sales in THIS country) we wasted in the 1995 - 2002 run-up to the Phase II go ahead - and subsequent cancellation of same??

Are you happy that after close to 9 years of Reticulose/Product R/AVR118 science we have but one less-than-thirty testing sequence going (in a foreign country) in which even preliminary results have yet to be published?

Just interested, as curious minds would like to hear your take on how fast this company is going to get ANY product to market and your precious PPS will go above 20 cents!!

We're now into our 3rd CEo in the past 2 years, how many more do we need to be successful?


 

By: allenadvrlong
06 Apr 2004, 09:10 PM EDT
Msg. 146444 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146441 by Ourobouros.)
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Ouro--one thing at a time

No Im not happy about the 9 years

I stayed in a biotech just about 9 yrs
left over what I thought was a bad mgt decision

Cannot undue the last 9 yrs

Cannot undue the 500K salary the last guy had which when I look back on it now was criminal-when I look back.

Right now ADVR needs to bear down on getting 118 into trials
after these results come out

They realized they needed a New CEO--They did something about it--I feel she needs the next two quarters and should have it to get all back on track

I really cannot answer your question about wasted dollars

I am looking for this CEO to come in and get everything going right-I dont believe for one minute she would have taken this job if she herself was not convinced of the value of 118--

More later-I got to eat
I think because the porno guy put HFTB in a post that
people have become convinced im him thats a chiller
at least Sue came out and explained it.

look--ADVR has had a checkered past
but a lot has changed and this CEO might get it all done
so far imo she was late with a letter to us-but it was a good letter.

Allen
By: Ourobouros
06 Apr 2004, 09:24 PM EDT
Msg. 146452 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146444 by allenadvrlong.)
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Well, I truly hope you get your ADVR dream.

I am pretty much spent out on giving them any more space to accomplish something they haven't been able to get done in 9 years yet, don't think a new CEO will make a difference at this point.

Only one, ONE, factor will pull them forward a deep pocketed partner. Everything else pales in comparison.

The only trouble I have with that vision is that this science has been displayed for that period of time and to date not ONE company has stepped forward to even give any indication of shaking ANY hands with ADVR. AVR118 has NOT been in hiding for all these years.


(Voluntary Disclosure: ST Rating- Strong Sell; LT Rating- Strong Sell)

By: shemp1248
06 Apr 2004, 09:29 PM EDT
Msg. 146457 of 146487
(This msg. is a reply to 146426 by Ourobouros.)
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Bernie, Don't you think that the physicians treating HPV now with drugs that are available might jump to our product if the literature points out a minute improvement in the present choices, and if you do agree then this will generate the much needed short term cash flow that we need to get the more lucrative indications through testing and then hopefully to market. The HPV indication will not overhaul present treatment, but it might be helpful to our future. Years ago the pharmaceutical reps. went out to jam their products down the MD's throat, but now the literature is what most MD's use to change or add therapy, along with word of mouth among each other. I don't want to see this company rely on a partner or even a financial institution that requires a piece of us. Your posts have taught me plenty about this new way of making a living instead of working 60-70 hours a week, so keep on helping me think and re-think my position. Thanks, Mike

(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)
By: allenadvrlong
06 Apr 2004, 09:36 PM EDT
Msg. 146462 of 146488
(This msg. is a reply to 146452 by Ourobouros.)
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Ouro-here is what I have done

I recently doubled what I had
This was driven by

1- invitation to Italy
2- Asco
3- Micro Cap conf
4- $$$$ 12mm
5- ASCO invite
6- My Belief that P1 will show safety
7- low price
8- ADVR seems to be finding other possible avenues for 118

now--ususally in a biotech like this I would have 3- 4 x


im holding back here to see what P1 results really are
if they are real good then I will add
if not well I have some decisions

IF the results are really good then [you wont like this]
I will hope that the Street YAWNS --why ? so i can add lots
more at a reasonable price THEN I will put advr away
and forget it for a year - 18 months when results come out
again.

Im actually actively looking now for 3- 4 more bios to buy.

This one I hope will stay with me

Regards
Allen

PS

H
F
T
B
By: Ourobouros
06 Apr 2004, 11:22 PM EDT
Msg. 146480 of 146488
(This msg. is a reply to 146462 by allenadvrlong.)
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Allen there is no Ph I testing going on with the systemic administration of AVR118, let alone an IND for that same mode of administration. The ONLY PH I testing approved by the FDA was already done on topical AVR118 and the FDA gave it the go ahead for PH II testing.

ADVR then chose to cancel those USA tests.

The ONLY testing going on is the trials in Israel, and we don't have a clue as to whether that test will be able to be used in ANY FDA approval process.

Allen the more you talk, it seems the less you know about the company and its product line along with the history.

Go back to the library and bone up on your ADVR history.

By the way, "My Belief that P1 will show safety" is a no brainer comment. It is accepted common knowledge that AVR118 is non-toxic. So when they come back with non-toxicity reports...well that's a ho-hum!!

By: Ourobouros
06 Apr 2004, 11:28 PM EDT
Msg. 146482 of 146488
(This msg. is a reply to 146464 by allenadvrlong.)
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"ever own a biotech and wake up one am and see on CNBC where they are down 60% becasue the company decided to cancel a P3"

----------------------------

Sure, ADVR, not in one day...but I watched it decline from 50 cents to 7 cents after they had gotten approval for an IND, gotten God-knows-how-many-patents touted in PRs, approval for PH II testing and then canceled it.

I'd say a decline from 50 to 7 is more like over an 80% decline for THIS company!! With all that "good news" you'd expect the price to be going up, rather than down. Care to explain to us here WHY you think ADVR's price is down from 50 cents??

Any other questions?? Once again, BONE up on your ADVR history before you go tooting your knowledge horn here.



(Voluntary Disclosure: ST Rating- Strong Sell; LT Rating- Strong Sell)