By: Zenna
09 May 2004, 08:49 AM EDT
Msg. 151987 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151651 by Ourobouros.)
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Bernie* Sifting through your posts with Barry, I noticed this post RE Hawkins IND experience...

Its my understanding that due to advances in technology
3-5% (used to be only 1-3%) of the drugs EVER make it to market...If Hawkins has taken 7 drugs to market, I'm Buying MORE..... :)

Outstanding achievement..


By: allen_only
09 May 2004, 08:55 AM EDT
Msg. 151988 of 152107
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I have a short term concern regarding Advr.
And that is that there is no new news at ASCO.
From what I read the trial is incomplete and is lacking
enrollment of the last 7 patients-I find that quite frankly
a bummer. So, a poster showing an interim to date report on the trial may show great promise and encourage excitement
but most of us seem to know all this anyway. I have said from day one that the full and final data from this trial
+ a commitment for a next step [P2] is what will count most to move the price, lacking this I am afraid will produce a
yawn from the street and minimal price appreciation.
Sure, we may move 50% from .12 to .18 but thats for traders
not the longs who have been here years[that does not include
me some have been here many years]

I do not want it to play out this way, but I have seen ASCO
produce yawns before. It could happen again. ADVR has been
tight lipped to a degree so maybe they will have a surprise.
I do hope animal studies on cancer will be shown at ASCO
as that would be something new.

Good luck to all
By: lovingitall0
09 May 2004, 09:29 AM EDT
Msg. 151990 of 152107
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ASCO: Soneone is talking. Let's hear more from ADVR.

Upcoming Events

"Up-to-date clinical data on ARIAD's lead oncology product candidate, AP23573, will be presented at the upcoming 40th annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) in New Orleans, Louisiana on Monday, June 7, 2004. In advance of this presentation, the Company will make the highlights of its clinical studies publicly available, coinciding with the distribution of abstracts by ASCO to its members. The published abstracts are based on results available as of the December 2003 abstract submission date. In addition, the Company's plans for advancing the clinical development of AP23573 in oncology will be announced prior to the ASCO meeting, and the Company's senior management will host a webcast analyst conference call in response to high-level investor interest in its lead clinical program."

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By: enoughalreadyny
09 May 2004, 09:36 AM EDT
Msg. 151992 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151988 by allen_only.)
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What you don't seem to understand is that in your post you say that "we all know that the data is good already", and that's the point. "We" means the investors who have been in this for years. Up until now, Mr. and Mrs. America would have no idea this company or their drug even exists. Through ASCO and hopefully the small cap conference an awareness will be created so new investors can play this game along with us. That's the way this game works. Prior management was never able to get anyone to listen since they didn't have the required data needed to wake anyone up. I think they have it now.The next few weeks should tell us if there's anything to get excited about. I think there is.
By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 09:46 AM EDT
Msg. 151993 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151988 by allen_only.)
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My biggest concern directed at those who are expecting HUGE jumps in PPS is that in the past no one presentation at any meeting has really ever had any sustained rise.

I'll say it again, put in the IND app, get a plus response from ASCO and NOT have an announcement of a partnership and you WILL get a yawn and be much ado about nothing.

The only thing that WILL produce a SUSTAINED rise in PPS is an interested pharm suitor who will use ITS reputation and CASH to move this forward. Otherwise, we remain in the teens to low .20s. A huge part of ADVR's problem is its damaged reputation.

A trader's dream come true!
By: lovingitall0
09 May 2004, 10:52 AM EDT
Msg. 151994 of 152107
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SCO Announces Press Program for 2004 Annual Meeting in New Orleans, June 5-8

Last Updated: May 06, 2004

Meeting Features New Research on Treatment for Prostate Cancer; Promising Advances in Targeted Therapies; A Potential Prevention Agent for Colorectal Cancer, and Risk Reduction for Breast Cancer

Alexandria, VA- More than 25,000 cancer specialists from around the world will gather at the 40th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) to discuss the latest advances in cancer care, treatment, and prevention. The meeting will be held at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, Saturday June 5 through Tuesday, June 8, 2004.

ASCO’s press program will highlight new research that will have immediate implications for prostate cancer patients; the latest advances in targeted therapies; important research on agents for reducing the risk of breast and colorectal cancer; and new developments into the use of genetic markers to predict treatment response and patient outcomes.

ASCO will mark its 40th anniversary with a variety of special events, publications, and displays that will chronicle the last four decades of cancer research and patient care. The meeting’s theme, “40 Years of Quality Cancer Care,”reflects the Society’s commitment to excellence in caring for patients.

More than 3,700 abstracts have been accepted to the four-day meeting. The meeting will also feature four educational symposia on Friday, June 4, that are open to media who preregister to attend. These include: Historical Aspects and New Horizons in Breast and Lung Cancers and Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma; Principles of Molecular Oncology; Research Ethics; and Clinical Research Grantsmanship Workshop for Junior Faculty.


Beginning Friday, June 4, ASCO will hold eight news briefings and two Meet the Expert education sessions for reporters. All information being presented at the Annual Meeting is embargoed until the beginning of the scientific session containing the research. However, for those studies being presented as part of ASCO’s Press Program, the embargo will lift at the beginning of the news briefing or the beginning of the scientific session containing the research, whichever is earlier.

Press Program Schedule **

Friday, June 4, 4:00 p.m., CDT - Opening Press Conference
Saturday, June 5, 8:00 a.m. CDT - Aerodigestive Cancers
Saturday, June 5, 10:00 a.m., CDT - Hematology-Oncology
Saturday, June 5, 12:00 p.m., CDT - Pharmacogenomics
Sunday, June 6, 9:00 a.m., CDT - Targeted Therapies
Sunday, June 6, 11:00 a.m., CDT - Chemoprevention & Hormone Therapies
Sunday, June 6, 3:00 p.m., CDT - Meet the Expert: Signal Transduction
Monday, June 7, 8:30 a.m., CDT - Central Nervous System Tumors
Monday, June 7, 11:00 a.m., CDT - Genitourinary Cancers
Monday, June 7, 4:00 p.m., CDT - Meet the Expert: Genetic Polymorphisms

** Times subject to change

News Briefings

Aerodigestive. This press briefing will highlight the latest advances in the treatment of lung cancer and head and neck cancers. Featured research includes a large-scale study examining the impact of adjuvant chemotherapy with erlotinib (Tarceva) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients; a study analyzing treatment outcomes for advanced NSCLC patients in different ethnic groups; a Phase III study evaluating radiation therapy with cetuximab (Erbitux) in advanced head and neck cancer; and a new study on the treatment of bronchioloalveolar lung cancer.

Hematology-Oncology. This press briefing will examine the latest research in cancers of the blood system. Featured research includes a phase III study comparing the novel agent bortezomib (Velcade) to standard therapy for multiple myeloma, and two studies evaluating the use of the monoclonal antibody rituximab (Rituxan) in difficult-to-treat lymphomas.

Pharmacogenomics. Studies at this press briefing will examine the use of molecular markers to predict clinical outcomes in cancer patients. Featured research includes a study on the relationship between genetic markers and quality of life, and studies examining the impact of certain genetic mutations on the effectiveness of breast cancer treatments.

Targeted Therapies. Several important studies at the conference will examine the latest advances in targeted therapy. Featured research includes a major phase II study of bevacizumab (Avastin) and erlotinib (Tarceva) in the treatment of metastatic renal carcinoma, and studies evaluating two novel signal transduction inhibitors in the treatment of gastrointestinal stromal tumors and metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

Chemoprevention & Hormone Therapy. Featured research in this press briefing includes a study examining the potential for reducing colon cancer risk with anti-cholesterol drugs called statins, and longer-term data on the potential for raloxifene to reduce breast cancer risk.

Central Nervous System. This press briefing will feature the latest research into the treatment of central nervous system tumors, including the first study to analyze the addition of chemotherapy to standard radiation therapy in the treatment of glioblastoma; research into the significance of gene markers in treating glioblastoma; and a large study examining chemotherapy and radiation for oliogodendrogliomas.

Genitourinary Cancers. This press briefing will include important research on genitourinary cancers, including two major phase III trials that will have immediate implications for prostate cancer patients; a study comparing radiation to single-dose chemotherapy for the treatment of testicular seminoma; and the first large-scale study on the link between hormone therapy and fracture risk among non-metastatic prostate cancer patients.

President's Cancer Panel Report. "Living Beyond Cancer: Finding a New Balance," a report prepared by this advisory panel to the U.S. president,
will be released with findings and recommendations on survivorship issues.

Meet the Expert Sessions

ASCO will hold two Meet the Expert sessions designed to offer reporters a unique opportunity to meet leaders in the field, ask questions, and discuss the current state of research and treatment in each of the following areas.

Signal Transduction. This session will examine the different signaling pathways that control cell growth, division, and death, and the therapeutic agents that block these pathways at different points to stop the proliferation of cancer cells. Experts will discuss the molecular structure of these agents, as well as their mechanism and impact on the growth of the cancer cell.

Genetic Polymorphisms. This session will examine how molecular markers can help predict clinical outcome in cancer patients. Experts will explore genetic mutations, their frequency in the population, and the use of genetic and molecular testing to predict treatment response and patient outcome.

On-site Resources: Daily news briefings will highlight important research being presented at the Annual Meeting. A full-service media center will provide printers, telephones, fax capabilities, interview rooms, and workstations with modem access. On-site news photos will be available on through ASCO’s online Press Center each day of the Annual Meeting. Shuttle service between all hotels and the conference center will be available.

Off-site Resources: Press releases on featured research will be posted on ASCO’s website following each press conference. In addition, ASCO’s Virtual Meeting will allow the media and the public to listen to major sessions online, and all research abstracts will be posted on ASCO’s website at the close of the Annual Meeting on Tuesday, June 8.

By: allen_only
09 May 2004, 10:52 AM EDT
Msg. 151995 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151993 by Ourobouros.)
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Ouro, I agree 100% with you. However one never knows
when a surprise can pop up.
I had hoped by ASCO the trial would be complete
partner or not a trial that was complete and reported
good data would imo cause sustained price appreciation.

I dont like that the CEO was slow to get an update out to
shareholders, also a webcast of her presentation would
have been thoughtful last week.

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By: allen_only
09 May 2004, 10:56 AM EDT
Msg. 151996 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151992 by enoughalreadyny.)
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enough, your right.The word need to get out Last week was a small step in getting the word out at an investors conf.
The problem is this...there is not a "definitive" word to get out yet. Definitive would mean the end of the trial and
a report on how well the endpoints were attained.

So- IF ADVR tries to get too much word out before final
results come out then they will look like hypsters
and a company that does science by press release.

Im afraid and this is my opinion only
that the price is going nowhere significent
.50 or more untill there is significent news.

By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 11:01 AM EDT
Msg. 151997 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151994 by lovingitall0.)
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"More than 3,700 abstracts have been accepted to the four-day meeting."

This is a negative for AVR118 and ADVR.

Lost in the shuffle by reports of drugs and therapies with more potential and important value closer to (or already in) production.

By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 11:02 AM EDT
Msg. 151998 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151995 by allen_only.)
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"However one never knows when a surprise can pop up."

Unfortunately THIS is why so many ADVR shareholders continue to hold on - market decisions based on potential "surprises" rather than actual events.

By: lovingitall0
09 May 2004, 01:54 PM EDT
Msg. 152001 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151999 by firehirshman.)
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Very good one, fire! I can understand ADVR having to be quiet re ASCO. Can you imagine this forum if they had to announce that they were disqualified because of something or other? Yikes! Perish the thought!

There always seems to be a reason however for our quiet periods. Yet, some biotechs are a lot more verbal and not so paranoid about everything. We're not looking for information that they can't release, but just what they can.

I think we all realize that the hopes of more frequent communications won't budge our PPS much, we all know by now what we need for that, but just knowing what's happening can do a lot to instill investor's confidence once more.

Well, the meeting in Yonkers with Elma Hawkins seemed successful and off to a good start.

Now to see if continues. That's the key.

By: enoughalreadyny
09 May 2004, 01:58 PM EDT
Msg. 152002 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 151993 by Ourobouros.)
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Ouro, if you are such a skeptic why are you still on this board. Maybe you're just bored, or maybe you have no friends. That is probably more like it.
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By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 03:20 PM EDT
Msg. 152004 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 152002 by enoughalreadyny.)
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Like any soap opera, watching it is sure 'nuff fun - and I just don't want to miss any of the acts in the play.

Other than the fact that I've been acquainted with this company for over 8 years (and lost over $75,000 of _real_ money in the process), I feel as if I have legitimacy with my comments.

Take it for what it's worth.

By: mbengineer
09 May 2004, 09:24 PM EDT
Msg. 152011 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 152008 by nvphyl.)
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MB new nothing that wasn't public. I just took the time to understand. The gov. allowed 30 to be tested. For reasons, the Co. quit at 23. What could be the reasons.
(a) They were unsuccessful.. Not logical since a the first fifteen showed good results.
(b) Saved $ since 23 gave results that were statistically significant.. The additional 7 would not have changed the statistics much.
(c) The added 7 would have increased costs without helping the proposed??ind at the FDA.
I am sure more reasons could be brought out on this board.

By the way, i checked with a statistician for my answers.

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By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 09:48 PM EDT
Msg. 152012 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 152011 by mbengineer.)
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I'm not sure that the management has officially said that "The gov. allowed 30 to be tested. For reasons, the Co. quit at 23."

It's my understanding they NEVER said they quit at 23, just simply they had tested 23 SO FAR.

Sure hope your story is right, verified by public announcements, and if you can't find those PUBLIC pronouncements, then you MAY in fact have some serious answering to do!!

Can you then point us to the public web sites or anyplace that was said in public??

And I seriously believe - with all the bona fide sleuths we have here who follow this company every step of the way - we would have known this before now and would have been discussing it.

I strongly suggested to you here online that you stop posting, didn't I??

By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 10:02 PM EDT
Msg. 152013 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 152011 by mbengineer.)
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you say,

"(b) Saved $ since 23 gave results that were statistically significant.. The additional 7 would not have changed the statistics much.


By the way, i checked with a statistician for my answers."


I'd like you to also answer the following::

How could YOU know ANYTHING about the data collected in order to verify it with a statistician if in fact you do not have access to the pertinent specific data, or at least not mentioned something already made public??

The company has specifically NOT released ANY of the pertinent data other than to say the "results were encouraging!""

Are you saying your "statistician" now has the ability to statistically analyze the words "results were encouraging" on 23 patients and extrapolate from simply those words.

Your hands have been caught in the cookie jar, and you have seriously publicly jeopardized the company's privacy.

Do you think you do good by releasing inside information in public when the company has specifically NOT told us anything specific about what KIND of data was generated nor what the actual figures are??

Loose lips sink ships, and I sure hope you revelation here does not ruin the ASCO submission attempt.

By: Ourobouros
09 May 2004, 10:04 PM EDT
Msg. 152014 of 152107
(This msg. is a reply to 152008 by nvphyl.)
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"If the comment is correct shouldn't damage control should start asap? The FD rule comes to mind!"

Thank you for this insight!!